USA Ultimate

I couldn’t sleep last night—I kept having bad dreams. I was back at College Regionals, where I was forcing bad throws, setting lazy marks, and getting beat deep. My teammates were livid, and they had no problem telling me about it. We weren’t going to make Nationals, and it was my fault that every little thing was going wrong.

I haven’t played college ultimate in two years. My dreams are irrelevant. But they’re also indicative of what’s about to go down.

The first pulls at Santa Barbara Invite, Joint Summit, and Warm Up went up months ago, but we finally made it: the 2011 College Championships in Boulder, Colorado start this weekend. College ultimate’s best 20 teams are here to compete for the title, and they all know that at some point between Friday and Monday, their season will be over.

Something tells me I wasn’t the only one who didn’t sleep well.

There’s a lot to worry about when it comes to winning a tournament like this. Actually, forget even thinking about the final score of games. First, teams have got to concern themselves with making sure the rookies set up the shade tent right, reminding everyone to trim their nails, and checking to ensure that nobody forgot their cleats.

But beyond that, there are so many strong teams in this field that it makes predicting a winner a useless endeavor. Everyone excels at something just like everyone has noticeable weaknesses. The question of who will win will be answered in the form of the team that does the best job of managing both.

In order of seeding, the following is my take on the strengths that this year’s Championships teams have shown as well as the challenges that they have faced throughout the 2011 season, along with what each will need to do in order to maximize its potential this weekend.

How to follow the action:

• College Championships Website (links to news items, photo galleries, videos)
   
• Follow us on facebook and twitter (#usauchamp event hashtag)
   
• Full schedule scoreboard (open / women's)
   
• Discuss the event in our message board discussion threads (open / women's)
   
• Watch the live streaming of the semis/finals (details to come in a later news item)
   
• Check out the coverage by skydmagazine
   

Why En Sabah Nur will win:

On top of attacking both the force and break sides well, throwers Chris Brenenborg, Alex Thorne, and Eddie Peters will look deep when the opening is there but holster it when it’s not. Also, the entire team will remain focused against each of its opponents. 

Why En Sabah Nur will lose:

Pittsburgh will lose focus by overlooking an opponent in pool play or giving too much thought to the gravity of Championships once they have reached the elimination round.

Colorado

Why Mamabird will win:

Coach Jim Schoettler’s fluctuating strategy decisions in this year’s pre-Series events will yield a finished product that is polished and versatile. The home team will play its best ultimate to date, bringing an offense that matches the strong defense that it has exhibited all year long.  

Why Mamabird will lose:

While very talented, upperclassmen Matty Zemel, Hylke Sneider, Martin Freeman, and Evan Padgett will be too loose on the field, turning the disc over on ill-advised hammers and poorly-timed hucks.

Florida

Why the Gators will win: 

Cole Sullivan, Alex Hill, and Nathan Sage will play flawlessly on offense, allowing Florida to take comfort in even the smallest lead. On defense, Florida will take smart deep shots and earn enough breaks to win games.

Why the Gators will lose:

Wisconsin and California-Santa Cruz’s high-energy defenses will score early breaks, forcing Florida’s top player’s to earn them back while also holding on offense. Florida’s rotation is already short, so difficult battles in pool play will leave them out of gas before Monday.

British Columbia

Why the Thunderbirds will win: 

British Columbia will frequently field seven players that are comfortable both handling and cutting, which will allow them to constantly find and exploit the right match up. It has been two years since they faced Harvard and Carleton, so they will take these teams by surprise.

Why the Thunderbirds will lose:

That same unknown status means a lack of exposure against the nation’s very best, and it will hurt them in such a high quality tournament. Also, key handler John Norris is questionable due to an arm injury, and will not be effective even if he does play.

Why Redline will win:

Andrew Vogt, Adam Fagin, Devon Williams, and Whitt Virgin-Downey are finally healthy all at once, meaning that George Stubbs will be able to add his potent cutting abilities to the throwing prowess that has made him 2011’s best player.

Why Red Line will lose:

Harvard’s offense will slip up early and Stubbs and Fagin will have to move over to play defense; their short rotation will be forced to play too many close games and will run out of legs.

Why the Hodags will win:

Wisconsin will show spectators and opponents that when a program wins three national titles in five years, it isn’t likely to need more than a year to rebuild. The Hodags won’t back down from any opponent and their play will remain unchanged regardless of the score.

Why the Hodags will lose:

Opponents’ strong help deep defense will keep Wisconsin from pulling down the 50/50 hucks that it likes to throw, and Hodag cutters will be too disorganized to allow for good movement underneath.

Oregon

Why Ego will win:

Oregon’s offense will be the fastest at the tournament, needing only two or three passes to score the majority of its goals. The team’s deep cutters will isolate themselves well, and the handlers will put the disc accurately.

Why Ego will lose:

Oregon will have a rough Friday. Texas will throw enough defensive looks to slow down the offense and Colorado will overpower them, leaving Ego frustrated and distracted a la 2010.

Why IHUC will win:

The Boulder wind will pick up and Iowa will emerge as one of the best huck-and-zone teams at the tournament. Tyler Glenn will dominate downfield, winning match ups in the air and using his strong throws to punish teams that force him under.

Why IHUC will lose:

Iowa’s handlers will turn the disc over with forced break throws and hasty endzone decisions, and their defense will be unable to lead comeback charges. 

Carleton College

Why CUT will win:

Carleton will show a lot more focus at the Championships than it did at Regionals. CUT is the deepest team in the country, so it will account well whenever a key player is having an off game because someone else will simply step up and make it happen.

Why CUT will lose:

Whatever the problem was in Madison, it will turn out to be more permanent than first expected. That, or they’ll run up against Florida and the mental hurdle will be too high to clear.

Why the Slugs will win:

Standouts Cassidy Rasmussen, Russell Wynne, and Devon Anderson will give lesser players fits, and Santa Cruz will do a good job of executing coach Daryl Nounnan’s game plans.

Why the Slugs will lose:

Santa Cruz will give up breaks in spurts, allowing teams to build comfortable leads and fend off any comeback attempts.

Virginia

Why Night Train will win:

Night Train’s offense will move the disc within the first few counts of the stall and remain comfortable with throwing a high number of passes in order to score.

Why Night Train will lose:

Night Train will fail to convert break chances efficiently, losing focus and falling victim to marathon points. The offense will turn the disc over too close to its own endzone and will not dig in hard enough to get it back.

Why Wasabi will win:

Having the Championships in their own back yard bodes quite well for Colorado College’s loose style of play, which will be reflected when they start connecting on deep shots. Also, Nicky Spiva will live up to the hype and prove unstoppable against teams with more depth.

Why Wasabi will lose:

Pool play foes Pittsburgh, Iowa, and Tufts all have talented deep stoppers, so Colorado College will be forced to work the disc more than it would like. Spiva will be well covered, and the roster’s secondary players won’t be able to fill the void.

Tufts

Why the Emen will win:

Alex Cooper and Ben Nelson will break the mark well,  and Tufts’ strong handler defense will lead to an upset over Pittsburgh.

Why the Emen will lose:

Tufts will turn the disc over unnecessarily and their previous success against Harvard will prove to be a product of nothing more than an in-region rivalry game.

Why TUFF will win:

Texas will run teams into the ground by breaking the mark and swinging the disc relentlessly. Will Driscoll will have a National coming out party, and coach Calvin Lin and his staff will be among the best in the field. 

Why TUFF will lose:

Texas won’t have the depth to compete once Driscoll and Will Campbell are covered, and their young squad will need another year to climb back into the upper tier of college ultimate.

Why the Sundodgers will win:

Washington will demonstrate a high ultimate IQ, working the disc patiently until they can attack through Phil Murray and Bryson Uhrig-Fox. 

Why the Sundodgers will lose:

Washington will lack speed on defense, which it will attempt to cover up with overzealous aggression.

Why the Sweets will win:

On top of quality thrower/receiver combination Jeremy Norden and Jacob Janin, Whitman’s roster will be deeper than people are expecting.  Their transition game will steal a win when one of Pool D’s top teams gets lazy.

Why the Sweets will lose:

Jeremy Norden’s life will be made difficult and the offense will sputter. Whitman won’t be able to sustain quality play on such a big stage, and they will prove to be the beneficiary of a four-bid region. 

Why Illinois will win:

Illinois’ junior class is big, and its experience playing together will be noticeable. Zach Frantz will do a good job leading the offense, and Ryan Smith will be a terror both as a defender and as a thrower after the turn.

Why Illinois will lose:

Defensively, the team will lack the athleticism and depth needed to stop more powerful opponents.

Stanford

Why Bloodthirsty will win:

Stanford’s season-long improvement process will have them peaking at the right time, and they will play a no-frills game that takes care of business and minimizes its own weaknesses. 

Why Bloodthirsty will lose:

Stanford won’t be able to keep up athletically, and once opponents recognize where the threats are coming from and how to stop them, they won’t have reliable second options.

Why LUFDA will win:

Luther will show that a team’s home region is important, using experience against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Carleton to ready itself against more formidable opponents.

Why LUFDA will lose:

The team’s lack of experience on defense will leave it unable to convert break chances, and its key offensive threats will be shut down.

Why the Buds will win:

Cornell will catch teams sleeping and Alex Kadesch, Neil Butler, and Bo Li, all players that were instrumental in the team’s 2010 semifinal run, will lead the team to some surprise wins.

Why the Buds will lose:

Cornell won’t be more than seven or eight players deep, and will be overpowered by its opponents.